Congrats to everyone in both top fives. x
Week 3 NFL Picks: Big Divisional Matchups Highlight Week 3
Sep 22 by Jason Brewer
Two weeks of the NFL season are in the books and in a lot of ways things are even more confusing. Pittsburgh isn't as bad they looked in week one, but then again Baltimore doesn't appear to be a good as they looked. About the only teams you can trust from a betting standpoint in this early part of the season have been the Patriots and Lions, but for this week's picks, that could change.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+9) - The Bills are the highest scoring offense in the NFL after two weeks. The Pats are the second highest. So chances are this should be a high scoring affair, but I like the Bills at home to keep up with the Pats. I don't know that they can win this game, but I think they can keep it within 9. Pick: Bills
San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) - Andy Dalton is off to a better than expected start in Cincy and the Bengals aren't as bad as everyone expected as a result. I think they absolutely can beat the Niners by more than a FG at home. Pick: Bengals
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-1.5) - The Dolphins were so much better on the road than at home last year and actually so far their offense has looked pretty capable. I like them in an upset here. Pick: Dolphins
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-6.5) -This line surprised me a bit. I know the Broncos don't inspire confidence, but why would the Titans? Yes they got a nice win over Baltimore last week, but they were still beaten by the Jags in week one. That said, I do like the Titans in this game, but it might be one to steer clear of. Pick: Titans
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) -The only surprise is here is how the low the line is. The Lions are firing on all cylinders and the Vikings have blown two straight first half leads. Pick: Lions
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-4) -I think the Texans might be getting too much respect here. They have played well, but I can't see them going into the Superdome and keeping this within a TD. Pick: Saints
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles - No line. It's all about whether Michael VIck can play. If so, the Eagles should be healthy favorites.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (- 3.5) - The Jags announced that Blaine Gabbert will get his first career start this weekend after the abomination of a performance Josh McCown put on last week against the Jets. Gabbert will face the only QB taken ahead of him in the draft this past year, Cam Newton. I think the Panthers win this easy. Pick: Panthers
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (+3.5) - It should be interesting to see the Jets on the road this week after two home wins the start the year. It will tell us a lot about them. The Raiders are a scrappy team and probably better than a lot of people give them credit for, but I'm going to ride the Jets until they show me they should do otherwise. Pick: Jets
Baltimore Ravens at St Louis Rams (+4) - The Ravens had a big letdown last week on the road against the Titans, which probably explains why this line is low. The Rams have been killed by injuries, blown out the first two weeks of the season and just haven't been the team a lot of people expected them to be this season. They do have a brutal schedule to start the year and I think that continues this week. Pick Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (+14.5) - It's amazing how far the Chiefs have fallen. This team one the AFC West last year and now in week three they're more than two TDs underdogs. The Chargers haven't exactly turned in a vintage performance yet this season, but this could be their chance to really show off. Start every Charger on your fantasy team this week... Pick: Chargers
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3.5) - The Bears have had a rough schedule to start the year with three straight 2010 playoff teams. They beat the Falcons soundly at home, but got beat convincingly on the road by the Saints. This week is another real test at home against the Packers, who actually didn't look great on the road against the Panthers last week and lost Nick Collins for the year. This is a tough game to pick, so I'm just going to play it safe. Pick: Packers
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) - I actually love the Cardinals in this game. Seattle is a very tough place to play, but they've been terrible this year and Arizona has at least show that it can score points. Pick: Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5) -The Falcons haven't been terribly impressive over the first two weeks and are better at home than on the road. The Bucs lost their first home game, but came back to win at Minnesota last week. Matt Ryan has been limited in practice after getting beat up on Sunday night... The Bucs have some things going for them here, but the historical trends actually favor the Falcons. Teams like the Falcons have actually won 56-60% of these games based on a few different models. Pick: Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+9.5) - At this point, why wouldn't the Steelers cover this spread? They covered 15.5 last week and the Colts might even be worse than the Seahawks. Pick: Stillers
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys - No line. Without word yet on whether Tony Romo will play there's no line on this game.
I loved Tomlin in the after game interview, and after a 24-0 route of a defenseless Seahawk team.
He did not look happy, and neither am I...yet.
Really Hoping I have better Luck this week, than I have the past two weeks. Still Waiting for the Patriots to Kick the Cowboys asses, and SouthernJim weeping, as he becomes my personal Slave for the week (:
this week kicked my ass but all is good cause the Cowboys beat the Redskins.....
NFL Picks Week 4: Can The Eagles And Patriots Bounce Back From Upsets?
Sep 30
by Jason Brewer
Last week was all about the big upsets. The Giants went into Philly got a big win, the Jets lost on the road to the Raiders and of course the Patriots were shocked by the Bills. I suppose this early in a very unorthodox year, these types of fluctuation in performance are to be expected. These teams had no offseason, shortened camps, there's record numbers of rookies on teams... So it stands to reason that they'd look good one week but struggle the next. However, after this week we will be one month into the season, so those excuses are burning up quick and it's time for the preseason contenders to start showing some consistency before they become regular season pretenders.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-6.5) - I like Bears a lot here. They've had a rough schedule to start the year and while Carolina has surprised some with the way they've played, they still only have one win. And while Cam Newton is off to a nice start, going on the road to play on that field in Chicago isn't going to be great for him. Pick: Bears
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (+3) - The Bills sport the highest scoring offense in the NFL right now, but could they be in for a letdown after their big win against the Patriots? That's the fear here. Because otherwise, you'd have to say that Buffalo is the better team. For that reason I like the Bills. Pick: Bills
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1) - The trends favor the Browns quite heavily here. Teams like them have won over 70% of one point spreads and similar spreads over the last 10 years. This is one of those games where it's hard to a get real gut feeling, so I'm going to trust the trends. Pick: Browns
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-1) - Interestingly the similar games with the same spread model heavily favors the Cowboys here. Teams like them have covered better than 70% of the time. That said, you really have to like the matchups for Detroit. Their d-line against the Dallas o-line is a huge mismatch while Calvin Johnson against whoever the Cowboys can find to try and cover him is maybe even bigger. Pick: Lions
Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) - Here are two teams that it's hard to trust with anything. The Vikings can't hold a lead and the Chiefs can't get one. Plus, the trends don't give us a lot of help either as the models are split about 50-50 as to who covers. I'll just go gut here and take the Vikes. Pick: Vikings
Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (+1.5) - The Rams have been a real mess this year but they are catching the Redskins in the second of back to back road games. I think this really comes down to a bad St Louis offense being really overmatched against a really good Redskins D. Pick: Redskins
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9) - The Eagles have owned the Niners in recent years both at home and on the road, but this line is high considering their terrible performance against the Giants. This will be the third straight year the two teams play and the Eagles will be starting their 3rd different QB. I think the Eagles offense gets back on track this week and the 49ers won't be able to keep up. Pick: Eagles
New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) - We've got Blaine Gabbert in his second ever start against Drew Brees. Frankly, I think that the Saints by less than a TD is a bargain, even on the road. Pick: Saints
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (-3.5) - This is one of those games where the trends actually favor the Steelers to cover, but I really like the Texans. The Steelers are coming off a so-so performance on the road last week and now they're on the road again against a much better team. Pick: Texans
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (+1) - Essentially a pick here and the trends don't really tell us much. Although the Giants could be in for a bit of a letdown after their big win last week and combined with a cross country trip this is a tough spot. Larry Fitzgerald could also be in for a big day against a suspect Giants secondary. Pick: Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) -This is a tough game. It's hard to trust the Falcons at this point, but Seattle is kind of a mess. That said, the Falcons have a lot working against them. A dome team going on the road to a very tough place to play, plus they're on the back end of back to back road games. Pick: Seahawks
Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-12.5) - Big number here and surprisingly, the historically similar matchups heavily favor the Broncos to cover. In fact, teams like the Broncos have covered in over 70% similar games in the last 10 years. Pick: Broncos
New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (+4) - This will be the second of back to back road games for the Patriots and the Raiders are better than people are giving them credit for. This isn't a high confidence pick, but I see them covering at home here. Pick: Raiders
Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-7) - Trends favor Miami to cover here, but I actually like the Chargers. They just seem ready to really break out while Miami seems poised to fall apart. Heading across the country seems like just the time to do it. Pick: Chargers
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) - The trends really favor the Jets here. They've covered in better than 58% of historically similar games. This really feels like one of those close field goal games, which means the Jets cover. Pick: Jets
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) - I really hate everything about this game. I don't really trust the Bucs to blow someone out, but then again Indy seems to have gotten worse after losing both Gary Bracket and Melvin Bullitt for the year. Plus it appears as though Curtis Painter will be starting for Kerry Collins. Pick: Colts
From the Wolf: Now for my Lock of the Week - I take my boys the Stillers on the road for second week to cover the points against Houston -3.5. Enough said. Lock of the week record 2-1 and I won more than four games.
It hurts to say but the Steelers fucken suck this season. Harrison is out for several weeks with an orbital fracture around his right eye.
Not that that matters really. They have sucked enormously with all their regular starters during the first few weeks. Even with the starting O-line Big Ben will be trampled the entire season long.
Superbowl hangover much again?
In contrast, the Packers are taking care of business in a beautiful way. Though I don't see them winning the Superbowl again this year.
Insert typical super smart ass comment courtesy of thepainter here.
Tell me about it. I am rooting for Detroit this year. Looking like a fun bunch. Love my Steelers, but everyone has an off season.
RAIDERS! JUST WIN, BABY!
So proud of my team today. Maybe now that he croaked, the curse of Al Davis will be lifted!
Also it was brought to my attention today that our head coach looks like Barry Bonds. That makes it even more fun.
49er's scored the most points with 48
Bucs scored 3 for the lowest
I bet no one got those right.
Damn, I'm getting the hang of it (:
Hey Jon, when ya going to post week Six?
Mo/Fker ...I sure sucked this week. Anyone have a noose I can use?