Quote by Ironic

According to the CDC, the city with the highest homicide rate in 2020 was Washington, D.C., with 24.4 killings per 100,000 people.

The mayor of Washington, D.C. is Muriel Bowser (D)

Looking at the data for 2021, Memphis, Tennessee had the highest homicide rate of all the cities included in the study, with 306 homicides and a homicide rate of 48.7 per 100,000.

The mayor of Memphis, Tennessee is Jim Strickland (D)

"Washington, D.C., had the highest homicide rate overall in 2020: 24.4 killings were reported for every 100,000 people. After the nation's capital, the highest rates of homicide were found in the Southern states of Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama. The state with the lowest reported homicide rate was Maine, with just 1.6 killings per 100,000 people, followed by Idaho and Massachusetts."

Quote by Magical_felix

Good thing big cities aren't run by republicans... The murder rate would be even higher like it is in places with republican mayors.

I clicked from that article to this one:

https://www.lamag.com/citythinkblog/why-youre-far-more-likely-to-be-murdered-in-fresno-or-bakersfield-than-san-fran-and-l-a/

“Tulsa (19.64) and Oklahoma City (11.16) have Republican mayors in a Republican state and have murder rates that dwarf that of Los Angeles (6.74).

In Kentucky, “Lexington’s Republican mayor saw record homicides in 2020 and 2021, with a murder rate (10.61) nearly twice that of New York City (5.94). 

Bakersfield (11.91) and Fresno (14.09) each have Republican mayors and murder rates far higher than either San Francisco (5.6) or Los Angeles (6.74)."

Damn.

Quote by ElCoco

The debunked analysis fooled you. Now you know better.

Have you found any of my posts that say the data doesn't show a trend?

Yes. The ones that say the data is debunked,

Quote by ElCoco

What more did you want? Since the analysis merges and mixes data from both parties and the authors present the results as if it didn't, you should be grateful that some people took the time to debunk the analysis.

I don't think anybody said the data doesn't show a trend. Can you find any post here that says the data doesn't show a trend?

.

1) Ensorceled was the one who suggested the relationship between gun ownership and murder rates.

2 & 3) Those possible causes don't have anything to do with the redness or blueness of the state, like the analysis results suggest.

.

I wouldn't be surprised that a political hit piece like that clever misuse of statistics would be used by an unscrupulous politician. I wouldn't be surprised at all.

😐

I mean, seriously 😐.

Quote by ElCoco

Why would you ask that? I think having an open and honest debate is good for our political system.

What's your opinion about that?

Because, for better or worse, that's how a two-party system works.

You'll see debates, but for president, they will be between Republican candidates in the primaries and Democratic/Republican in the generals.

Quote by ElCoco

The data's not trash. The analysis is.

I guess that's all you, Chryses, and Ironic can add. You think the data doesn't show a trend, so you can't really contribute to the question of why.

For the rest of us....

1. More guns in rural areas (60:40ish)

2. Honor culture (AKA more thin-skinned snowflakes willing to get violent over a slight)

3. Fewer resources when people are in crisis

What else would explain this? And also, do you think, like me, that if you were a democrat running for mayor, you'd use this data?

Quote by ElCoco

If you change "dishonestly" to "unfairly," we'll be good.

Not a fan of a two-party system?

Quote by Chryses

I have no need for some perfect, absolutist analysis. By recording the homicide counts in each jurisdiction and using the party affiliation (D/R or B/R) of the administration for that jurisdiction to organize the data, the homicide rates can be identified by political party. Doing so will enable direct comparison.

Using the faulty linked analysis results fails to provide such a direct comparison.

edited

So it's faulty when done at the state level but not at the "jurisdiction" level?

Quote by Chryses

If what you think is needed is a perfect, absolute solution, you will be disappointed.

What has been shown here is that the analysis performed on the CDC data is flawed.

I'm saying that what you need is a perfect, absolutest solution in order to believe the data before you. I'm saying the state data is good enough to show the trends.

Quote by Chryses

As has been shown, both self-governing cities and self-governing counties are distinct political jurisdictions.

Within most jurisdictions, there are pockets of red and blue. How would you weed that out?

Quote by Chryses

That, too, is a good point.

As the difference between the red/blue state murder rates is almost cut in half when excluding the homicides from the county with the largest city, doing so suggests there is something significant about the city.

This leads me to the question, “If rather than excluding the homicides from the county with the largest city, the homicide counts from Democratic jurisdictions were excluded, what would the results be?”

If that were done, the rest (the Republican jurisdictions) would have a homicide rate independent of homicide rates from Democratic jurisdictions.

In other words, the analysis would produce directly comparable Democrat and Republican homicide rates. Those Republican homicide rates from the red states could be compared and contrasted to the homicide rates from the blue states.

That is not what the flawed analysis produces, although the authors would have one think so.

Define a "jurisdiction".

Quote by ElCoco

I'm sure the DNC and Biden's campaign has a reason for shutting down debate within their party, and your explanation might be the one.

What I said was the fix is in.

OK. So, what are you implying when you say that? The term "the fix is in" means dishonestly controlling a contest. A party deciding who it's going to put its support behind isn't that.

Quote by Chryses

The data does not suggest a political relationship to greater or lower homicide rates. It is the flawed analysis that is making the association.

The authors use the numbers – 23% or 12% (before and after adjustment) – presented in the linked article to suggest that blue states have a much lower murder rate than red states. That suggestion is unreliable due to the flawed analysis it relies upon.

We're just simply going to disagree on this.

There's no flaw in the analysis. Analysis isn't even really needed. It's just comparing one set of numbers against another for a given area: a state. It happens all of the time. How many abortions in this state and what's its political leaning, for example.

The question is why does this trend exist? Culture? Laws? Higher population of dumbasses? Because if we can bring down homicide numbers, that would be a good thing.

Quote by ElCoco

If you're relying on the stats from the OP linked article, then yes, that's trash.

If you're interested in us discussing this, we'll need to use useful analyses.

The article literally just wedded the numbers from https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/datarequest/D76 (The CDC's mortality data) and the voting records. Which source is trash?

Quote by AngelEthics

This applies to either party. The psychology is supposed to be that you have an edge when you're an incumbent. It's not a conspiracy; it's a strategy.

Quote by ElCoco

I didn't say it applied only to Democrats.

If you have an edge, it'll show in a debate.

If your own party makes you run for the job you already hold, it undermines your edge as an incumbent.

Quote by ElCoco

Yes. Much better. Thanks.

I hope you won't be disappointed if I agree with you on all 8.

Qualifications

2) If letting somebody know you've got a gun, know how to use it, and are willing to use it, doing that isn't irresponsible since it might short-circuit a more serious confrontation.

4) Many gun owners like to show off their prized possession, in particular to other gun owners. Since in our BNW here, they'll all be trained on how to drive a gun, letting one handle it when it's unloaded should be acceptable.

I may dream up other differences between us about guns, and you might too, but this is a start.

Open-carrying a riffle into a Chipotle would be a "no" under your system?

Quote by ElCoco

Everybody knows they're just part of a political hit piece. Good clean fun if you're in that game.

No.

The statistics are showing a trend. The trend is that the majority of the voting population in each state tends towards Trump, despite blue bastions. The numbers show that there's more homicide in these states, nationwide. Every singe one, right? There's supporting data, too, from separate studies looking at rural vs urban (and suburban) violence, and Magical Felix has posted this. And, still, it's called trash and a political hit piece. I mean, FFS.

And this is the problem with the political discourse. Global climate change? Isn't happening. Gun Violence? No, not guns, it's a mental health issue. January 6 insurrection? How dare you call a protest an insurrection. Red State homicide rates and why? Well, a red state has all of these blue spots....

Quote by ElCoco

Right. The fix is in.

This applies to either party. The psychology is supposed to be that you have an edge when you're an incumbent. It's not a conspiracy; it's a strategy.

Quote by ElCoco

Ms. Williamson hasn't held political office before. She'd be assuming an unfamiliar role if she won.

With the DNC not organizing any debates between Democratic candidates, it looks like the fix is in.

Prior to 2019, she was an independent. You can't just say you're a Democrat five minutes ago, announce you're running for president, and and expect the party to primary the incumbent for you. I don't think that's any kind of fix.

Quote by Magical_felix

Rural America Reels From Violent Crime. ‘People Lost Their Ever-Lovin’ Minds.’

https://icmglt.org/rural-america-reels-from-violent-crime-people-lost-their-ever-lovin-minds/

local prosecutor Rebecca McCoy used to think of her home in central Arkansas as a place where the worst crimes were usually stolen tractors and lawn mowers.

In March 2020, she was called to the trailer of a 72-year-old man who had  been bludgeoned to death with a baseball bat. It was White County’s first homicide in almost two years. By that December, there were 11 more...

It's like you said: there are more resources in the city. People quietly losing their minds in an area with no internet, spotty phone reception, and law enforcement who is used to dealing with stolen tractors. Add to that, that 60% of guns are in rural areas, and the most surprising thing about this story is the choice of baseball bat as a weapon.

Quote by ElCoco

That’s not true.

Here’s an example. Ramapo is a town in Rockland County, New York State.

Ramapo has a different representative in the House than Rockland County does.

Ramapo’s representative is a Democrat.

Rockland County’s representative is a Republican.

You're talking about the Federal House of Representatives. Congressional districts and counties are two different things. If counties and congressional districts were the same thing, it would be harder to gerrymander.

Quote by letsgonow69

I am in business. I have my personal views on politics, as does everyone. I do not express them related to my business.

And that is why you are still in business. If I didn't know about political leanings of businesses, I wouldn't feel morally obligated to respond to them.

Quote by Chryses

That is what the 23% (before adjustment) or the 12% (after adjustment) greater-murder-rate-in-red-states-than-blue-states result would have one believe.

My example shows that the claim is groundless.

This data is not suggesting that one of the political parties has a predisposition to murder. It's showing that republican policies state-wide are no better at preventing murders that Democratic policies city-wide.

Just out of interest, when you see a study that shows the San Francisco problems, do you ever ask, "I wonder if the political islands of Republicans within the city are contributing to this?" Because that's exactly what you're asking here.

Quote by ElCoco

I smelled a rat when the state's city numbers were folded into its county numbers. That mixing together hides any murder rate difference there might be between them.

Are you aware that cities are part of counties? Just like how counties are part of states.

Quote by Chryses

Ironic hit the nail on the head.

The analysis purports to tease out of the data political predispositions towards murder.

At its base (when excluding the murders from only one of the cities), it combines whatever differences there may be between Democrat and Republican tendencies in all the other cities.

If the goal is to distinguish assumed different predispositions between Democrats and Republicans to murder, then those groups should be measured.

Those different groups were not measured in the red states.

Political predisposition to murder?

This data-set says, here's a state that likes what Trump is selling. That makes them majority Republican. Republicans like to point to Democratically run cities and wax poetic about the crime and drugs. It's hypocritical. We don't need to dig down to city level politics and run a t-test to see how the culture that goes with these politics does not lead to a safer society.

Quote by Chryses

Do you disagree with what I posted?

I feel like it's an SAT question. 7.

I think that what I said to Ironic applies here. You want this to break down the data to counties or cities, right? I argue that the numbers may not be as precise as they could be, but that doesn't mean they're wrong.

Quote by Magical_felix

In cities too but when you have millions of people in one spot you get a place like skid row for example but if you look at it per capita, it's less than in rural areas. But of course it's easy to just show a group of a dozen people getting high in an alleyway and just go "look, the democrat run cities are cesspools".

It's easier for propagandists to do that than show all the reasons why it's so wonderful to live in a town of 2,000 people than say a city with millions of people. The city will drastically have more quality of life features than a small town in the middle of nowhere so they chose to lie about crime, drug use etc.

It's true. I blame John Mellencamp for glorifying small town life.

Edited because I fucked the punchline.

Quote by Ironic

The flaw is that they excluded only the murders from the county with the largest city.

The analysis is claiming to compare blue/red murder rates, right?

The analysis claims the murder rate is related to the political party in control.

Most cities are Democratic-controlled.

Only the murders from the county with the largest city are excluded. The authors claim this controls for the possibility that the murder rate in that city (probably Democratic-controlled) skews the murder rate for the state.

That is the flaw because it fails to exclude the murders from the other (probably Democratic-controlled) cities.

If the exclusion really did control for "blue" murders, then the correct analysis would organize the murders by politically controlled location.

Then you'd be comparing apples to apples.

As the analysis is at the moment, it misrepresents the murder/political relationship.

Ok. Tell me if I'm representing you correctly.

You think that state-by-state party affiliation and murder rate is too broad of a brush, and that this data should be collected and reported county-by-county?

If that's correct, you're still going to get a mix towns and townships that may or may not agree with the politics of the county. How small do you need to go to show the trend is real? Especially when the study tried to correct for that by eliminating the largest element that may have skewed those numbers?

Quote by Magical_felix

Also it's interesting to note that the suicide rate is higher in rural areas than urban areas.

And meth use. People in the countryside are bored and depressed.

Quote by Ironic

I wasn't advancing a theory. What I've done is to show the flaw in the analysis methodology.

What is that flaw? That they didn't exclude enough of a red state to make homicide rates on a par with blue states?